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Leo Rodman
November 11, 2024
In partnership with
So, the US election. That happened. Many were surprised; I was not.
How will it impact AI?
I suspect Trump will be more anti-China with regards to technology exports, which I think is a good thing. The rise of China is good for nobody. And I expect him to be more anti-regulation internally, which will help AI growth, but may or may not be good in the long term. I expect him to ally with Saudi Arabia and Dubai against Russia and China in the AI race, which I’m dubious about. I expect deregulation and partnerships will help the US to remain competitive in the AI race, though.
I’m less confident in predicting the effects of the Trump victory on EU and Asia ties regarding AI and tech. Of note, TSMC is located in Taiwan, and I think China will continue with anti-Taiwan aggression at a greater rate under Trump, who generally seems to pivot from Asia to the Middle East in terms of political focus. This plus tariffs could really drive up prices of AI chips, having negative effects on AI growth.
I think Trump will be bad for Ukrainian sovereignty, but he will probably push for a rapid agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and that sort of stability could be good in the short term for global trade and AI growth, but bad in the long term in terms of empowering Russian aggression.
My best advice is to do a lot of reading about AI regulation and Trump’s plans. I’ve gotten you started below and I’ll continue to update as I learn more.
Here’s hoping for the best! Stay positive everyone. Who knows what will happen. I consider myself a centrist, and I’ll do my best to remain an optimist!
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